![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() There is a very high probability of both strong Indian Ocean Dipole and West Pacific Gradient conditions, and hence it is very likely that the eastern Horn of Africa will experience very poor rains and very dry soil moisture and streamflow conditions in October-November-December.” This would constitute an unprecedented fifth season of drought. In a forecast released on August 16, the FEWS NET agroclimatology team wrote: “Sea surface temperature predictions indicate a perfect ocean for drought. The La Niña cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific and the warming of the western Pacific disrupts weather patterns all over the world. Scientists who study climate and weather teleconnections note that human-induced climate warming in the western Pacific, and a now-likely third year of La Niña conditions are contributing to the current drought. The Horn of Africa is especially prone to drought, so FEWS NET and related agriculture and climate teams have invested significant research and modeling time into trying to predict rainfall patterns there. The FLDAS Forecast is a custom product of the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System (NHyFAS) developed under a NASA Applied Science grant to support the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). ![]() The NASA FLDAS team generates and analyzes data on moisture at the land surface and in the top few centimeters of soil to show existing conditions and to predict them for upcoming months so that farmers and agriculture agencies can prepare for deficits or surpluses. Areas in dark brown were well below the average rainfall for the time of year, with many areas more than 50 percent below normal. The map at the top of the page-based on the Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset-shows how rainfall in March, April, and May 2022 compared to the long-term average accumulation. At the same time, the region has endured extremely warm air temperatures that desiccate soils and evaporate already diminished water supplies. Then the 2022 MAM season brought the lowest rainfall on record for much of the region. The 20 OND rainfall was substantially below normal, and the 2021 MAM season was also drier than normal. Tropical countries within the Horn of Africa tend to have two rainy seasons: the October, November, and December (OND) “short rains” and the March, April, and May (MAM) “long rains” (which sometimes extend to August in some areas). An estimated 18–21 million people now “face high levels of acute food insecurity” in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, the working group noted. At the same time, regional conflicts, COVID-19, locusts, and the Ukraine War have caused price spikes and shortages of basic commodities. Yields of key crops are down for the third year in a row, milk production is in decline, and more than 9 million livestock animals have died or been culled due to a lack of water and suitable forage land. With forecasts suggesting the next rainy season will also be inadequate, climate and agriculture experts are advising governments and relief agencies to expect a significant need for food assistance.Īccording to a July 29 report from the international Food Security and Nutrition Working Group, the worst drought in 70 years has left more than 16 million people across the Horn of Africa coping with a shortage of drinking water. Scientists and aid agencies are now alerting the world to an unprecedented level of food insecurity in 2022 for Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. That has not happened in 40 years of satellite records. The rains have failed in Eastern Africa for four consecutive seasons. ![]()
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